Notre chercheuse, Dr. Luíza Cerioli, a récemment publié un article dans la revue Geopolitics intitulé « Green Windows or Old Traps? Geopoliticization, Extractivism, and Policy Challenges in the Global South.”
Dans ce nouvel article, elle examine les principales sources d’incertitude qui alimentent le processus de géopolitisation (dépendances technologiques de trajectoire, compétition géoéconomique, réorganisation des systèmes énergétiques et conflits sociopolitiques liés à l’extraction). Elle explique ensuite comment ces dynamiques créent des ambiguïtés politiques pour les acteurs du Sud global, compliquant les décisions concernant la gouvernance des ressources, le transfert de technologies, la dépendance aux politiques domestiques et la sécurité énergétique.
Abstract:
The global energy transition is increasingly driven by competition among major powers instead of multilateral cooperation, raising questions about its impact on resource-rich countries in the Global South. While International Relations (IR) and International Political Economy (IPE) have focused on the geopolitics/geoeconomics of the transition, a growing discussion within Development Studies highlights ‘green windows of opportunity’ for economic catch-up and structural change. These two approaches often operate separately, overlooking how geopolitical competition and development prospects are interconnected and mutually shape one another. This article addresses this gap by focusing on the agency of extractivist countries, those heavily dependent on extracting and exporting raw materials, as they navigate the geopoliticization of the energy transition. Geopoliticization is a framing process in which the energy transition becomes part of strategic rivalry, affecting the international environment where resource policies, partnerships, and development strategies are negotiated. The article proceeds in three parts. First, it identifies four main sources of uncertainty driving this process: technological path dependencies, geoeconomic competition, reorganisation of energy systems, and socio-political conflicts related to extraction. Second, it explains how these uncertainties create policy ambiguities at the national level, complicating decisions about resource governance, technology transfer, domestic policy dependence, and energy security. Third, it highlights the role of extractivist political settlements in assessing whether these windows of opportunity exist and, if so, how deeply rooted political and economic structures can either reinforce extractivism or adapt to new incentives. By connecting geopoliticization with the political economy of extractivist countries, this article provides a detailed framework for understanding why the global energy transition does not automatically lead to green industrialisation or structural change in many parts of the Global South. It demonstrates that opportunities are ambiguous, contingent on circumstances, and shaped by both international pressures and domestic political arrangements, emphasizing the need for deeper exploration of domestic agency in the Global South.
Open access ici: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14650045.2026.2659603.
Cerioli, L. (2026). Green Windows or Old Traps? Geopoliticization, Extractivism, and Policy Challenges in the Global South. Geopolitics, 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2026.2659603.
