Nuestra investigadora, Dra. Luíza Cerioli, ha publicado recientemente un artículo en la revista Geopolitics titulado «Green Windows or Old Traps? Geopoliticization, Extractivism, and Policy Challenges in the Global South.”
En este nuevo artículo, revisa las principales fuentes de incertidumbre que impulsan el proceso de geopolitización: dependencias tecnológicas de trayectoria, competencia geoeconómica, reorganización de los sistemas energéticos y conflictos sociopolíticos relacionados con la extracción. Luego explica cómo estas dinámicas generan ambigüedades políticas para los actores del Sur Global, lo que complica las decisiones sobre gobernanza de los recursos, transferencia tecnológica, dependencia de las políticas domésticas y seguridad energética.
Abstract:
The global energy transition is increasingly driven by competition among major powers instead of multilateral cooperation, raising questions about its impact on resource-rich countries in the Global South. While International Relations (IR) and International Political Economy (IPE) have focused on the geopolitics/geoeconomics of the transition, a growing discussion within Development Studies highlights ‘green windows of opportunity’ for economic catch-up and structural change. These two approaches often operate separately, overlooking how geopolitical competition and development prospects are interconnected and mutually shape one another. This article addresses this gap by focusing on the agency of extractivist countries, those heavily dependent on extracting and exporting raw materials, as they navigate the geopoliticization of the energy transition. Geopoliticization is a framing process in which the energy transition becomes part of strategic rivalry, affecting the international environment where resource policies, partnerships, and development strategies are negotiated. The article proceeds in three parts. First, it identifies four main sources of uncertainty driving this process: technological path dependencies, geoeconomic competition, reorganisation of energy systems, and socio-political conflicts related to extraction. Second, it explains how these uncertainties create policy ambiguities at the national level, complicating decisions about resource governance, technology transfer, domestic policy dependence, and energy security. Third, it highlights the role of extractivist political settlements in assessing whether these windows of opportunity exist and, if so, how deeply rooted political and economic structures can either reinforce extractivism or adapt to new incentives. By connecting geopoliticization with the political economy of extractivist countries, this article provides a detailed framework for understanding why the global energy transition does not automatically lead to green industrialisation or structural change in many parts of the Global South. It demonstrates that opportunities are ambiguous, contingent on circumstances, and shaped by both international pressures and domestic political
arrangements, emphasizing the need for deeper exploration of domestic agency in the Global South.
Open access here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14650045.2026.2659603.
Cerioli, L. (2026). Green Windows or Old Traps? Geopoliticization, Extractivism, and Policy Challenges in the Global South. Geopolitics, 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2026.2659603.
